Post-Promo Baseline Lift

Description: Sustained increase in baseline sales after a promotion relative to pre-promo levels.

Formula: ((Post-Promo Baseline – Pre-Promo Baseline) ÷ Pre-Promo Baseline) × 100

SQL Calculation (simplified):

(AVG(baseline_sales_post) - AVG(baseline_sales_pre)) / NULLIF(AVG(baseline_sales_pre),0) * 100 AS post_promo_baseline_lift

Why It Matters: Captures long-term effectiveness of promos in raising everyday demand.

Metric Type: Result (Strategic)

Essence: Lagging → Leading (predicts future baseline)

Frequency: After each promo (usually measured over 4–8 weeks)

Units: Percentage (%)

Suggested Breakdowns: Product, Retailer, Promo Type

Questions Answered:

  • Did this promo permanently raise our baseline sales?

  • Are we gaining lasting trial and repeat?

Potential Causes of Worsening: Pantry loading (baseline dip after promo), deal-seeker churn, ineffective follow-up.

Tactics to Improve:

  • Target promos to new buyers

  • Follow-up loyalty campaigns

  • Manage pantry loading

Related Metrics:

  • Incrementality %

  • Lift Sustainability Score

Related Explores:

  • Longitudinal Promo Analysis

Related Sources:

  • URMS baseline data

  • Syndicated promo performance

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