Market Opportunity (URMS)

Retail Market Opportunity Dashboard (ACV Expansion Simulator)

Overview

The Retail Market Opportunity Analysis Dashboard (aka your new favorite Distribution Expansion Simulator) helps you quantify the upside potential of expanding your product’s distribution in the retail market. It’s essentially a “what-if” tool: “What sales could we achieve if we increased our distribution to a certain level?”

This dashboard is particularly valuable for sales and category teams when preparing growth plans or retailer pitches. By using your current velocity (sales rate) and distribution, it calculates an Opportunity Dollar figure – the additional sales you could capture at higher distribution levels. It also allows scenario planning: you can select a target distribution (% ACV) or even choose a proxy product as a benchmark, and the dashboard will estimate the incremental revenue opportunity if those targets are met. This is often used in customer presentations to illustrate the economic benefit of giving a brand more shelf presence or authorizing new items.

How It Works

• Current Distribution & Velocity: First, the dashboard presents your product’s current %ACV distribution and velocity (typically in $ per ACV point). For example, you might be at 45% ACV distribution with a velocity of $50K per 1% ACV. In plain terms, 45% ACV means your product is sold in stores accounting for 45% of total market sales. A velocity of $50K per 1% ACV (or $0.5M per 10% ACV) means that for every additional 1% ACV distribution, you sell about $50K annually (assuming velocity stays consistent). These two numbers set the stage: they reflect how widely available you are and how well you sell in those stores.

• Target Distribution Input: The dashboard usually provides a control (slider or input box) to set a Target %ACV Distribution. For instance, you can input 60% ACV or 80% ACV as a hypothetical goal. Immediately, the dashboard will calculate what your sales would be at that distribution, holding velocity constant (or sometimes allowing you to adjust velocity assumptions too). The difference between that potential sales number and your current sales is highlighted as the Dollar Opportunity. For example, if at 45% ACV you sell $10M annually, and at 80% ACV you could sell $18M (given the same velocity), the opportunity is $8M. This essentially says: “There’s an $8 million sales gap that could be filled by getting from 45% to 80% ACV distribution.”

• Proxy Product Scenario: Another powerful feature is the ability to select a Proxy Product or Brand. Say you’re launching a new item or you want to convince a retailer about the potential of your product by comparing it to a similar item. You might choose a successful item (maybe your competitor or one of your own portfolio items) that has known distribution and velocity. The dashboard can then assume “if my product achieved the same velocity and distribution as Product X, what would the sales be?” This is great for new product forecasting. For instance, “Our new flavor could perform like our core flavor. If we reach the core flavor’s distribution of 70% ACV and it attains 80% of the core’s velocity, it would generate $Y in sales.” The dashboard would output that $Y as the potential.

• Opportunity Metrics: The primary metric is often called “$ Opportunity” or “Unrealized Sales”. It might also express this as a % increase over current sales. There may be a table breaking down opportunity by region or retailer – e.g., showing where the biggest distribution voids are, and how much each is worth. For example, if you’re only in 20% of Walmart stores but 80% of Kroger stores, the Walmart gap might represent a huge chunk of the opportunity. Additionally, a graph might plot current vs target distribution on the x-axis and sales on the y-axis, illustrating the growth curve as distribution increases (often assumed linear for this analysis).

• Adjustable Assumptions: Some versions allow you to adjust velocity assumptions for the new distribution. Realistically, velocity in incremental stores could be lower if those stores are less ideal (maybe your product sells best in certain demographics). A conservative scenario might assume your velocity will be, say, 80% of current in the new stores. The dashboard might let you dial this down and see a more conservative opportunity estimate. Alternatively, you could test boosting velocity – like, “what if we not only expand ACV but also increase velocity through marketing?”.

Using the Dashboard for Strategy

• Prioritize Distribution Efforts: By quantifying the dollars at stake, this tool helps prioritize which accounts or regions to target. If the dashboard shows a $5M opportunity by getting into a specific retailer, that’s powerful justification for your sales team to focus there or for management to allocate trade spend/resources to win that distribution. It essentially turns abstract ACV percentages into concrete revenue – a language everyone understands. Retail buyers also respond to this: “If we can achieve 80% ACV at your stores, that’s worth an extra $2M in sales – which benefits both of us.” It backs up asks for new distribution with data.

• Set Realistic Goals: The scenario planning ensures goals are grounded in data. If you see that even at 100% ACV (the whole market) you’d only get to, say, $12M, and you’re already at $10M, then the upside is $2M max – which might suggest you’re nearing saturation or your velocity would need to improve to grow significantly. On the contrary, if you have low ACV and strong velocity, the sky’s the limit – the dashboard might reveal a huge upside which justifies aggressive expansion efforts. For example, a high-velocity niche brand at 10% ACV could have a multi-fold sales increase if it achieves 50% ACV, assuming velocity holds – that could be a “go big” signal.

• Explore New Product Launch Impact: Using the proxy mode, you can simulate a new product’s contribution. This is often used in line review meetings: e.g., “We’re introducing a new SKU. If it performs like our current top SKU (which does $X per ACV point) and we get it to Y% ACV in Year 1, it will add $Z to category sales.” Retailers appreciate this approach because it’s grounded in actual data from similar items. It also allows you internally to sanity-check launch projections. If the numbers seem too optimistic (assuming equal velocity to a well-established item might be bold for a new item), you can adjust downward. The dashboard’s flexibility means you can create best-case, base-case, and worst-case scenarios on the fly.

• Identify Key Void Fill Opportunities: Often, the output will highlight specific gaps. For example, it might list the top 5 retailers or regions where your distribution is lowest, along with the dollar opportunity in each if you bring them up to a benchmark. Perhaps “Retailer A: currently 30% ACV, opportunity $1.5M if reach 60%” and so on. This can align the sales team’s focus – maybe it’s not worth chasing small independents (small ACV) if the big gap is Target or Whole Foods. It quantifies which voids matter most.

• Caveats: It’s worth noting (and you might include this in training) that this analysis assumes current velocity remains constant when scaling distribution. In reality, when you go from niche to mass, velocity can either decrease (because new outlets might be less ideal for the product, or you saturate your core demand) or sometimes increase (due to network effects or more marketing support). So use these projections as guideposts, not guarantees. The dashboard might allow tweaking velocity for that reason. Also, if your product is very niche (e.g., a vegan supplement in health stores), achieving 100% ACV in all grocery stores might be unrealistic – so consider the nature of distribution, not just the number.

In summary, the Retail Market Opportunity Dashboard is like a crystal ball for “what could be.” It translates distribution gains into revenue gains. Use it to make the case for expansion, to set targets with your team (e.g., “let’s aim for +15 ACV points next year, which would net roughly +$3M in sales per the model”), and to ensure everyone understands the value of getting more products on more shelves. It underscores a fundamental truth in CPG: availability drives sales – if you have the velocity to back it up. With this tool, you can clearly demonstrate that relationship and plan accordingly.