Forward-Buy %

Description: Share of wholesale shipments during promo that did not sell through at retail, suggesting retailer pipeline loading.

Formula: (Promo Shipments – Promo Sell-through) ÷ Promo Shipments × 100

SQL Calculation:

(SUM(promo_units_shipped) - SUM(promo_units_sold)) / NULLIF(SUM(promo_units_shipped),0) * 100 AS forward_buy_pct

Why It Matters: Indicates retailer stockpiling during promos, which can distort incremental sales and depress future orders.

Metric Type: Diagnostic

Essence: Lagging

Frequency: Per Promotion Event

Units: Percentage (%)

Suggested Breakdowns: Retailer, Product, Market

Questions Answered:

• Did retailers overbuy during the promo?

• Will this forward-buy hurt post-promo shipments?

Potential Causes of Worsening: Aggressive trade discounts, retailer gaming, poor inventory planning.

Tactics to Improve:

• Shift to scan-down allowances

• Cap order quantities

• Align promos with consumption not pipeline load

Related Metrics:

• Sell-through %

• Incremental Sales

• Post-Promo Baseline Lift

Related Explores:

• Wholesale vs Retail Alignment

Related Sources:

• URS.WHOLESALE_REPORT + URS.SALES_REPORT