> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://help.daasity.com/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://help.daasity.com/core-concepts/metrics/retail-and-wholesale-metrics/wholesale-promotion/forward-buy.md).

# Forward-Buy %

**Description:** Share of wholesale shipments during promo that did not sell through at retail, suggesting retailer pipeline loading.

**Formula:** *(Promo Shipments – Promo Sell-through) ÷ Promo Shipments × 100*

**SQL Calculation:**

```sql
(SUM(promo_units_shipped) - SUM(promo_units_sold)) / NULLIF(SUM(promo_units_shipped),0) * 100 AS forward_buy_pct
```

**Why It Matters:** Indicates retailer stockpiling during promos, which can distort incremental sales and depress future orders.

**Metric Type:** Diagnostic

**Essence:** Lagging

**Frequency:** Per Promotion Event

**Units:** Percentage (%)

**Suggested Breakdowns:** Retailer, Product, Market

**Questions Answered:**

* Did retailers overbuy during the promo?
* Will this forward-buy hurt post-promo shipments?

**Potential Causes of Worsening:** Aggressive trade discounts, retailer gaming, poor inventory planning.

**Tactics to Improve:**

* Shift to scan-down allowances
* Cap order quantities
* Align promos with consumption not pipeline load

**Related Metrics:**

* Sell-through %
* Incremental Sales
* Post-Promo Baseline Lift

**Related Explores:**

* Wholesale vs Retail Alignment

**Related Sources:**

* URS.WHOLESALE\_REPORT + URS.SALES\_REPORT